the family sports blog

Written by: Nigel Burris

Coming into the 2026 season, the Cincinnati Reds and their fanbase had high expectations. After making the playoffs in 2025, the hope was that this young team would take another step forward and become a legitimate contender in the National League.

For the first month of the season, it looked like that was exactly what was happening.

The Reds cruised through April with a 20–11 record, and many fans began to believe that the preseason hype was real. Elly De La Cruz was playing like an MVP candidate, and for the first time in a while, opposing teams could not simply pitch around him. The meteoric rise of young, electric rookie Sal Stewart gave the Reds another dangerous bat in the middle of the lineup.

Pair that with what looked like breakout seasons from Spencer Steer, Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder, along with a bullpen that had the best ERA in baseball, and the Reds looked like one of the most complete teams in the league.

For a moment, it felt like Cincinnati had finally arrived.

The Reds Were Supposed to Have Depth

A large amount of the hype coming into the season came from the imagined depth that many believed the Reds had.

Matt McLain was the best player in baseball during Spring Training. TJ Friedl looked like a reliable leadoff hitter. Noelvi Marte looked amazing to end the 2025 season. Ke’Bryan Hayes brought one of the best defensive gloves in baseball, and there were still several young players waiting for their opportunity.

Edwin Arroyo, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Rece Hinds and others all looked like players who could step in and contribute if someone got hurt or began to struggle.

On paper, this was supposed to be one of the deepest Reds rosters in years.

The problem was that much of that depth never turned into consistent production. Players got injured, others went through long stretches of poor play, and the lineup never seemed to be fully healthy or clicking at the same time.

Instead of having too many good players and not enough places to put them, the Reds suddenly found themselves searching for anyone who could provide consistent offense.

Then Everything Fell Apart

After the 20–11 start, the story of the season completely changed.

The next two and a half months were nothing short of disastrous.

Heading into the All-Star break, the Reds had fallen all the way to 43–52. A team that once looked capable of competing with Milwaukee for the National League Central had fallen into last place and appeared to be completely out of the race.

Rhett Lowder and Eugenio Suárez got injured. The bullpen quickly went from the best in baseball to one of the worst. The offense became extremely inconsistent, and the Reds repeatedly wasted strong performances from their starting pitchers.

Outside of the occasional hot night from the lineup, the season looked like it was all but over.

Even when the Reds played well for a game or two, it never seemed to last. A good win would be followed by an ugly loss. A short winning streak would immediately be erased by another losing streak.

By the All-Star break, many fans had stopped thinking about the playoffs and started wondering who the Reds would trade before the deadline.

Is There Finally Some Hope?

As we sit nine games into the “second half” of the season, the Reds have won six of their last nine games.

That is not enough to completely erase what happened over the previous two and a half months, but for the first time in more than a month, there finally seems to be some light at the end of the tunnel.

The return of Hunter Greene has proven to be a game changer for the rotation. Having Greene back alongside Chase Burns gives the Reds two starting pitchers who are capable of completely taking over a game.

Burns continues to look like a Cy Young-winning pitcher. Every time he takes the mound, the Reds have a legitimate chance to win, regardless of how the offense is playing. He has quickly become one of the most exciting young pitchers in baseball and looks like someone Cincinnati can build its rotation around for years.

Lowder has also returned, giving the Reds another talented young arm. If Greene, Burns, Abbott, Lodolo (post blister) and Lowder can all remain healthy, Cincinnati suddenly has a starting rotation that no team would want to face in an important series.

The bats have also started to come alive.

Elly continues to be the engine of the offense, Stewart continues to look like one of the best young hitters in baseball, and the rest of the lineup has finally started providing some support.

The Reds are still far from perfect. The bullpen remains unreliable, the lineup is still capable of disappearing for multiple games at a time, and the team has almost no room left for another extended losing streak.

However, for the first time in weeks, this team is at least giving fans a reason to believe.

Forget About The Division

At this point, the National League Central is almost certainly out of reach.

The Reds currently sit 16.5 games behind the first-place Milwaukee Brewers. Unless the Brewers suddenly forget how to play baseball and Cincinnati turns into the best team in the league, the division race is over.

The Wild Card race, however, is a completely different story.

Despite sitting six games below .500, the Reds are only five games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final National League Wild Card spot.

That is what makes this entire situation so strange.

A team with Cincinnati’s record probably should not still have a realistic path to the playoffs. The Reds spent most of the last two months playing like one of the worst teams in baseball. Yet because the middle of the National League has been so inconsistent, the door remains slightly open.

There are several teams between Cincinnati and Arizona, but none of them has completely separated itself from the pack. The Reds do not need to catch Milwaukee. They do not need to suddenly become the best team in baseball.

They simply need to keep winning while hoping the other fringe playoff teams continue beating up on one another.

Could The Reds Sneak Into The Playoffs Again?

Last season, the Reds benefited from a similar situation.

Cincinnati did not dominate its way into the playoffs. The Reds needed help from other teams, including the Mets falling apart at the right time, and they managed to sneak into the postseason despite finishing with a record that normally would not be good enough.

Could it happen for a second straight year?

As ridiculous as it may sound, it is possible.

If the Reds continue winning series and get help from teams like the Mets, Diamondbacks, Pirates, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres and Marlins, they could slowly play themselves back into the race.

Would it be surprising? Absolutely.

Would it be somewhat undeserved after how poorly they played for most of the summer? Probably.

But nobody is going to complain about how the Reds made the playoffs if they actually get there.

Once the postseason begins, records no longer matter. A rotation featuring Burns, Greene, Abbott, Lodolo and Lowder could make the Reds a dangerous matchup in a series. Elly is capable of changing a game by himself, and Stewart has already shown that he is not afraid of big moments.

The difficult part is getting there.

The Trade Deadline Decision

This recent hot streak has also made the trade deadline much more complicated.

A few weeks ago, the obvious move appeared to be selling. The Reds were buried in last place, the season looked finished, and there was little reason to hold onto veterans who could bring back something useful for the future.

Now the front office has a much more difficult decision to make.

Do the Reds sell because their overall record says they are not a real contender? Do they stand pat and give this group a chance to make a run? Or do they actually add a piece or two and try to take advantage of a weak Wild Card race?

Nine games should not erase everything that went wrong before the All-Star break. The Reds are still below .500, still in last place and still need to jump several teams.

However, it would also be difficult to explain selling important pieces while sitting only five games out of a playoff spot.

The Reds have spent years telling fans to remain patient and wait for the young core to develop. At some point, the organization has to show that it is actually serious about winning.

This may not be the ideal season to buy heavily, but completely giving up while the team is still within striking distance would send the wrong message.

So, Are The Reds Getting Hot At The Right Time?

Maybe.

The Reds have definitely looked better since the break. Greene is back, Burns continues to look like a Cy Young-winning pitcher, Lowder has returned and the offense has finally started showing some life.

At the same time, Cincinnati created this hole by playing terrible baseball for more than two months. Winning six out of nine games is encouraging, but it does not suddenly erase a 43–52 record at the break.

The Reds have not earned the benefit of the doubt.

They will have to earn it now.

If Cincinnati can continue winning series, get healthy and find any sort of consistency from the bullpen, the team could make the Wild Card race interesting. The Reds do not need to play perfect baseball, but they cannot afford another major losing streak.

They also need some help.

Last year, the Mets opened the door for Cincinnati. This year, the Reds will once again need several teams ahead of them to struggle down the stretch.

It may be unlikely. It may be undeserved. It may be another example of an expanded playoff format allowing a mediocre team to remain alive much longer than it should.

But a playoff spot is still a playoff spot.

The Reds played themselves into a surprising and somewhat undeserved postseason appearance last year. Somehow, after spending most of this season trying to bury themselves, they have a chance to do it again.

The division is gone, but the season may not be.

For the first time in more than a month, the Reds have given their fans a reason to keep watching.

Now they have to prove that this is more than another temporary hot streak.

– Nigel Burris